Many investors complained about Bitcoin (BTC)’s weak price movement in September. Many had already exited the market before the summer holidays, following the slogan “Sell in May and go”. But it looks like now might be the best time to refocus on the broader crypto and BTC market. Here are an analyst’s statements about BTC purchase…
Analyst explains the best time to buy Bitcoin
CryptoBirb, a well-known cryptocurrency market analyst, published a brief analysis of historical returns for BTC on X later in the year. According to him, September, historically the weakest month, is the best opportunity for market returns. This is followed by October and November, which are statistically the two most profitable months. The last weeks of September can provide an excellent opportunity to buy Bitcoin. According to historical statistics, September is the only loss-making month of the year when averaged over the entire available history of BTC trading. Therefore, CryptoBirb states:
The second half of September is an incredibly good opportunity to buy Bitcoin.
Best $BTC buying opportunity ever coming in two days?
Here’s my urgent explanation with surprise👇 pic.twitter.com/F58UzBigBN
— Adrian Zduńczyk, CMT (@crypto_birb) September 24, 2023
The analyst also acknowledges that this thesis does not guarantee the best possible “buy the dip” opportunity in the ongoing week. This is a thesis based entirely on statistical data and says nothing about future price movements. However, history often tells a story, especially in the cyclical Bitcoin market. Therefore, looking at the statistics of two consecutive months (October and November), CryptoBirb does not hesitate to point out that it is probably the best time to take a long position in BTC.
The biggest returns for BTC are in the fourth quarter of the year in the last quarter
Statistics published by Coinglass can be used to support CryptoBirb’s thesis. The analysis platform has detailed statistics on profit/loss in the BTC market over various time periods, from daily to quarterly. First of all, it is worth noting that the fourth quarter (October-December) of each year is statistically the most profitable month of the year. Also, the third quarter (July-September) always follows the least profitable. Considering this range alone, it is clear that the end of the third quarter is the best opportunity to buy BTC. These are exactly the last weeks of September. Next, one can look at the monthly returns of Bitcoin trading. According to CryptoBirb’s observations, September is the reddest month of the year. In just two years, 2015 and 2016, very small profits were made this month. In contrast, the next two months are completely different.
For example, October has closed in the red only twice so far. It experienced declines of 12.95% in 2014 and 3.83% in 2018. November closed in the red 4 times, including a decrease of 36.57% in 2018, 17.27 in 2019, 7.11% in 2021 and 16.23% in 2022. However, although November produces losses more frequently, this month’s profits have historically been the largest month. Therefore, the penultimate month of the year is statistically the most profitable month. However, more conservative investors may pay more attention to October, which produces smaller but more stable profits and rarely minimal losses.
